Best bets for Monday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe New Orleans Saints will host the Miami Dolphins to wrap up Week 16 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).
This week, ESPN betting analyst Eric Moody along with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer up their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 37.5) at New Orleans Saints
Moody: Both the Saints and Dolphins have struggled to move the football this season. Miami averages 314.7 total yards per game (23rd) while New Orleans averages 311.7 (26th). And neither team scores a lot of points. With an average of 22.4 points per game, the Saints are ranked 17th, while the Dolphins are ranked 21st. The offensive situation for the Saints is even worse, as both Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill are on the COVID-19 list, with Ian Book set to start. This will put even more pressure on the Saints' defense.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they've played much better offensively of late and should be relatively healthy coming into this game. The Saints have given up an astonishing 402 total yards per game at home in 2021, worst in the NFL. In this matchup, the Saints could struggle on both sides of the ball. On the other hand, the Dolphins could thrive.
From a player prop perspective, Alvin Kamara will play against one of the league's best run defenses. The Dolphins rank ninth in run-stop rate. Kamara will be able to use his skills as a receiver out of the backfield. During his last five active games, he has averaged 6.6 targets and 4.6 receptions. This should position him to surpass the prop total.
Picks: Under 37.5 points (-110), Dolphins -2.5 (-110), Kamara over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: I've written in this space a couple of times about the fact that "passes defensed" is a better predictor of future interceptions than past interception totals. That's why it's somewhat astonishing that Zach Wilson of the New York Jets did not throw any interceptions last week against the Miami defense, which leads the NFL with 77 passes defensed.
I'm going to guess that the Dolphins' defense will not be shut out on picks two weeks in a row, especially facing fourth-round rookie Book, pressed into his first NFL start after Siemian and Hill were placed on the COVID-19 list.
Pick: Book over 0.5 interceptions
Marks: Book has a similar style to Hill. and the rookie fourth-rounder has more wins (30) than any other quarterback in Notre Dame history. But the Saints will have to lean heavily on Kamara to lead the offense -- expect a strong dose of Kamara all game long. On the other side, Miami's Mike Gesicki has a chance to take advantage of a Saints' defense that's without a pair of starting linebackers and Malcolm Jenkins.
Picks: Saints 1st quarter (+175); Book over 180.5 passing yards (-105); Book over 51.5 rushing yards (-110); Kamara over 90.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110); Kamara anytime touchdown (-124); Geskicki over 40.5 receiving yards (-115); Jason Sanders over 6.5 points (-125)
